The title of today’s episode is inspired by The Grateful Dead – such a good band. Their songs always have so much ambiguous meaning behind them that can often be applied to range of topics. In this case, I’ve liberally ascribed some meaning to ‘Truckin’.
“Truckin’, got my chips cashed in
Keep truckin’, like the do-dah man
Together, more or less in line
Just keep truckin’ on”
As investors, we should be retaining a cash balance at times – to weather a storm, take advantage of opportunities, or just staying the course. Stay the course – don’t freak out just because the weather’s gone all nasty on us…this too shall pass.
“Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me
Other times, I can barely see
Lately, it occurs to me
What a long, strange trip it’s been”
We’ll never know how long and how strange this trip has been, until it’s over, and we’ve past through the latest tunnel we’re heading through. It’s really hard to see this now, but some of us will actually have a tough time recalling some aspects of this lock-down period. For others though, the lock-down period brought on by this recent pandemic will act as a milestone in our minds, partitioning all events as ‘pre’ and ‘post’ Covid-19.
Some businesses and some long term trends, will die – some will thrive. This potpourri of emotions – fear, mourning, peace, resignation, hope and greed. It’ll all be mashed up into a cold contemporaneous soup and dished out indiscriminately to all of us.
“Sittin’ and starin’ out of the hotel window”
Strong leadership emerges over time from those who have gone through tough times before – it’s way too soon to praise, or to judge, our leadership through this pandemic though – we don’t have enough information. Sitting and staring outside the window does amazing things for us though – it’s a pre-requisite condition for creativity. Solutions to problems (innovation) is born during these times. When we’re set free, I’m wondering what will happen in the start-up community, the first time investors, the first time home-owners – will they be able to hang on or will they hang up the boots in fear and run when they get a chance?
In this episode, Jarrod Kerr (Chief Economist at KiwiBank) and I explore the following topics:
1 – Business confidence is down, and it’s still dropping. Much of the pain is yet to come.
2 – Is the damage caused by the lockdown (economic, social, mental heath) worth it?
3 – What are some ‘silver lining’ moments? Specifically what trends and what businesses are poised for success?
4 – The best response to the current pandemic is fiscal, not monetary – what does this mean?
This episode is an essential one. The Covid-19 pandemic will act as a catalyst to bring about significant change in the new world – we will never invest the same beyond this point…and that’s not a bad thing. Just because what we’re heading into is ‘unknown’, it doesn’t have to be scary.
I’ll leave you with this quote from Jerry Garcia:
“Stuff that’s hidden and murky and ambiguous is scary because you don’t know what it does.” – Jerry Garcia (The Grateful Dead)
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